For anyone who is a fan of the movie Titanic, you know how much that movie must have cost to make and how much production likely went into it. The same can be said for films like Avatar or the Terminator. Huge budgets, tons of planning, lots of money. All of these movies were directed by James Cameron and all of these movies took on a considerable amount of risk to make. But at the end of the day, all of them were box office smashes and made the studios loads of money.
Maybe we should all channel our inner James Cameron and apply that to betting. We don’t want to delve into nearly as much risk as the movie studios, but we do want to be risky in a controlled way that can make money and increase the chances of our bets hitting.
If you want to have any sort of success in the sports betting world, some risk is inevitable and if you don’t have the stomach for it, maybe betting isn’t for you.
That said, there is a big difference between feeling that risk and feeling like you are in way over your head; there is a sharp distinction. Let’s look at you how to minimize some of that risk which will make you more successful in the long run.
Start by Finding the Best Odds
There is something to be said about all the different sportsbooks that now exist and how there is a grind for competition among them. With so many of these companies desperately trying to rack up customers, they are all in a battle for the best odds.
When you are looking for a game to bet on or even more specifically, looking for a prop bet, shop around. There are times when you can find odds with a huge margin difference.
For example, if you are watching a Cleveland Browns game and want to bet on Nick Chubb rushing yards, Sportsbook A may have his line set at Over 80 yards (-135) while Sportsbook B is offering Over 78.5 (-125). It is a no-brainer to bet with Sportsbook B. You are taking a better bet, risking less money, and you stand to win more.
Far too often, gamblers get complacent with the sportsbooks that they prefer to bet with and they don’t look at outside opportunities. That is the worst thing you can do as every single cent matters. As the books take a percentage (vig) from your bets, you should be shopping for the biggest discount. After all, we wouldn’t pay $100 more for a pair of shoes at one store if it’s offered for a huge discount at the store next door.
Hedge Your Bets
You can hedge bets in a couple of different ways now that so many of the mobile sportsbooks allow you to cash out when you stand to win big. If you are about to hit a massive parlay, but there is still a chance that the bet can lose, you will see a “cash out” option on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings. However, there is still an old-school way to go about this which can be effective when you are placing a risky bet.
Hedging means betting on alternative markets or outcomes to minimize losses. Let’s say you placed a futures bet a few months ago on the Eagles to win the NFC Championship game and they are set to play the Dallas Cowboys in the matchup. You will have a chance to hedge your bet. If you took a futures bet, you likely had great odds. In this example, we will say the odds were +480 and you placed a $100 bet.
If you want to hedge your bet, you can place another $100 on the Cowboys with odds around +140. At this point, you will either win $380 if the Eagles win ($480 win – $100 Cowboys bet) or you will win $40 ($140 win – $100 Eagles bet.) This is just one way of hedging a bet that will help in the long run on futures bets.
Look for Live Markets
Betting on any sports game can be unpredictable but there is a way to cheat the system. When you bet on a game live, you are getting a peak behind the curtain. Imagine if you are betting on a horse race, but you’ve not seen any of the horses race. If you could bet on who you think will win after a full lap, you’re more likely to hit your bet because of the information you have.
The same can be said for sports like basketball, football, hockey, or baseball. Betting live on a game minimizes risk because you really know what you’re getting yourself into. Maybe you were nervous about a game because the snow was going to limit offense. Turns out it didn’t snow for three quarters and once you see the clear skies, you live bet the over.
In basketball, good teams can quickly go down if their opponent goes on a scoring run. Minimizing risk would be avoiding the pre-game line and betting that team when the odds and lines shift and you can get them at a better number if you’re still confident they will cover the number or win the game outright.
Have a Management System
Truly, the most important aspect of sports betting is having self-control, being disciplined, and having a system in place that dictates how much money you are willing to lose. It sounds obvious, but you can’t risk more than you have if you don’t allow yourself to.
Before you start betting, establish a budget for yourself. This will give you a full bankroll. This is the number that dictates how much you are willing to lose if you lost every single bet you placed. Your bankroll can be decided on a weekly basis, monthly basis, or yearly basis.
After that, dictate your unit size. This is the amount of your money that you will place on each bet. Be consistent with these two things. Stick to your bankroll and stick to your unit sizes and you should be okay.
Don’t Chase the Favorite
It can be so easy to just say that the favorite is going to win and that you are going to put a straight bet on it and walk away. Not so fast. The moneyline odds on a favorite to win a game aren’t always what they seem and this can burn you in the long run. I am not saying that you should always just pick the underdog, but many times, there are unfavorable odds tied to the better team.
For instance, if the Minnesota Wild are playing the Florida Panthers and Florida has a record that is 15 games better than Minnesota, the odds might be something like -450 for the Panthers to just win the game. You are taking on a considerable amount of risk in this situation for a small reward. Always look for odds that will give you a positive or break-even return.
The greatest example occurred during a Chargers versus Jaguars playoff game. Los Angeles raced out to a 27-0 lead. One bettor placed a $1.4 million bet on the Chargers to win the game after leading by all those points. His net return was going to be just more than $11,000. Clearly, the risk in this bet was far too much to take on, but the bettor decided to take it anyway. That night, the Jaguars stormed back and beat the Chargers 31-30 as time expired. The bettor lost $1.4 million on a bet that would have returned him less than one percent.
With these tips, you can minimize the risk and, hopefully, make a buck or two while betting.
Good luck!