When you make a moneyline bet you simply pick the team you think will win or lose. It’s the simplest form of sports betting and there is really no need for complicated calculations.
How Moneyline Betting Differs from Point Spreads
The moneyline is different from the point spread, where teams have to win by a specific margin. Let’s break it down with a quick example:
- Moneyline bet: If you pick the Lakers to win, they just need to win – the score margin doesn’t matter
- Point spread bet: If you pick the Lakers -7.5, they must win by 8 or more points for you to win your bet
Understanding Moneyline Odds
The beauty of moneyline betting lies in its simplicity. You’ll see odds displayed like this:
Lakers -150 Celtics +130
These numbers tell you two things:
- How much you need to bet to win $100 (for favorites)
- How much you’ll win if you bet $100 (for underdogs)
Moneyline bets work particularly well for sports where scoring is low or games tend to be close, like hockey or baseball. They’re also perfect for beginners since they’re easy to understand – your team wins, you win.
Understanding Moneyline Odds
Here in the US, the odds appear as either positive (+) or negative (-) numbers. These numbers represent two things: 1, the chance of each team’s likelihood of winning, and, 2, your potential payout.
Negative Odds (-)
- Indicate the favorite to win
- Show how much you need to bet to win $100
- Example: -150 means betting $150 to win $100
Positive Odds (+)
- Represent the underdog in the matchup
- Display how much you’ll win on a $100 bet
- Example: +200 means betting $100 to win $200
Here is an example:
Yankees (-150) vs. Red Sox (+130)
Here, the Yankees are favored to win. A $150 bet on the Yankees would give you $100 in profit, while a $100 bet on the Red Sox would return $130 if they pull off the upset.
The implied probability hidden within these odds and in a nutshell shows the sportsbook’s view of each team’s chances:
- -150 odds ≈ 60% chance of winning
- +130 odds ≈ 43% chance of winning
Note: The total exceeds 100% due to the bookmaker’s built-in profit margin
These odds fluctuate based on betting activity and whatever new information comes in about the teams. People who bet regularly usually track these movements closely to find an edge; they look for chances to bet against the sportsbook’s judgement when they thing that the odds might not accurately reflect a team’s true winning chances.
Here are some factors that can change the moneyline odds:
1. Team performance and statistics
- Recent win-loss records
- Head-to-head matchup history (so check what team own last time they played)
- Home/away performance
- Scoring patterns and defensive capabilities
2. Player-related factors
- Injuries to key players
- Rest periods between games
- Player matchups and individual statistics
- Team roster changes
3. External influences
- Weather conditions (particularly for outdoor sports)
- Travel schedules
- Stadium conditions
- Historical performance in similar situations
There is more, but that’s a starting point.
Another thing that affects the odds – also known as line movement – is public betting activity. For example, an increase in bets on one team can prompt bookmakers to adjust their lines to balance their exposure. In other words, if many people think that the sportsbook is wrong in their prediction, the sportsbooks will likely change their odds.
So to become a better bettor it’s worth spending some time watching the line movements to spot opportunities.
For example, if a team opens at +150 and moves to +180 due to public betting activity, this shift might present added value for those who’ve done their research and still believe in that team’s chances. (Read more about expected value). The timing of these movements matters too. Early line movements often reflect sharp bettor activity (many experienced bettors making the same bet), while later movements typically show public betting patterns. Understanding these patterns helps identify potential advantages in the betting market.
